- IMF estimates Pakistan’s growth at 3.2% for the current fiscal year.
- Government target stands higher at 4.2%.
- World Bank, ADB, and SBP give even lower estimates.
- IMF also expects inflation to fall to 9.5% this year.
Pakistan’s economic growth remains a topic of debate as global lenders and local authorities give different numbers.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan’s economy will grow by 3.2% in the current fiscal year. The estimate appears in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report. This figure falls below the government’s official target.
The IMF also noted a 0.4 percentage point drop from its earlier estimate released in October.
Government Target vs. Global Estimates
The Ministry of Finance has set a growth target of 4.2%. Officials say reforms and better performance in key sectors will help reach this goal. The ministry reported 3.7% GDP growth in the first quarter of the fiscal year. It expects improvement in the coming months.
Other global lenders remain cautious.
- The World Bank estimates Pakistan’s growth at 3% this year and 3.4% next year.
- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects 3% growth.
- The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) gives a range of 2.5% to 3.5%.
These figures sit below the government’s target.
Inflation and Outlook Ahead
Here is IMF’s expectations and predictions for Pakistan:
- Inflation will fall to 9.5%, down from 23.4% last year.
- Growth will rise to 4.1% next fiscal year.
- Inflation could ease further and drop to 6.5% by 2029.
- Unemployment rate will fall from 8% this year to 7.5% next year.
- Current account deficit will remain close to 1% of GDP. It was 0.2% last year.
The IMF said global growth will stay at 3.3% in 2025 and 2026. This level remains below the long-term average of 3.7%.
Economists say the different estimates show confusion about reforms, foreign pressure, and the local economy. The government expects higher growth, but global institutions are more cautious.
