The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) monetary policy will be announced tomorrow, July 30, and will outline a blueprint of the direction of the Pakistani economy in the next 1.5 months. Everybody has their eyes on the major interest rate decision, and a rate cut is eagerly expected.
Reduction of the policy rate by SBP is more likely due to recent T-bills auctions with lower yields. But the extent of the anticipated reduction is not clear.
According to a survey by Arif Habib Securities:
- 21.1% expect no change in the interest rate
- 31.6% predict a 100 basis points (1%) cut
- 47.4% expect a 50 basis points (0.5%) cut
Another survey by Topline Securities shows:
- 56% expect a cut between 50 to 100 basis points
- 37% see no change
- 2% predict a 200 basis points cut
The current interest rate is 11%. The last SBP Monetary Policy update on May 5 included a 1% rate cut.
